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I have my strong doubts...

Message from Mike coastal CT

The colors are a bit hard to make out ...but as I've mentioned, models normally overdo the cold, both the GFS, Euro, and others. My guess is that anything more than 10 to 12 F anomalies is pushing it for this cold shot.

Also, as you point out, 10 F anomalies are not really anything that large. IMO an anomaly of less than 12 F is not really noteworthy in most middle latitude climates. Places like LA and Miami often have 10 - 12 F anomalies now and then.

Also, it's not totally correct (from a synoptic standpoint) that just because Canada is warm, does not mean there can't big anomalies on the Gulf Coast : The only way it can get cold on the Gulf Coast is through advection - the Gulf can't produce any cold air on it's own. So the condition and temp of southward advecting airmass from Canada is important: If air masses are warmer as they depart Canada, they will further warm as they advect southward down into the USA. That's another reason snowcover is important in how (and if) an airmass will modify.




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