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Can You Provide the link where he said that?
Message from Tom in Philadelphia
I don't like giving Bastardi $19/month lol, because he is way too political. I subscribe to WBell cause they have a good site with lots of models and graphics.
I agree that he said that we were going to get some non winters, however I don't recall him being that specific about 3 out of 5. I could be wrong but I would like to see the actual blog or tweet where that was stated. He bases the warmer winters on the collapse of the blob and a cold NE Pacific. He bases this cold coming winter (according to him), on the Modiki Nino, fading quickly in Jan and Feb (he hopes), and the blob still being there. I think he also kind of agrees with Cohen about Siberian snow, but Cohen was glaringly wrong in Jan and Feb 2014 when he said we were going to get a non winter.
Bottom line is this: Beyond two weeks, no one can really get any accuracy with these long range forecasts. I remember December of 89, a brutally cold month with severe cold all over the east including FL. Didn't have the internet then, but I read an article I could get my hands on about weather. They all were predicting a brutal winter based on what they called ECOW, Early Cold Onset Winter. They were all dead wrong. It flipped New Years and was warm from then on. Jan and Feb 90 were very warm. They just NEVER know what the atmosphere is going to do.
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