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That is not showing on the lastest GFS

Message from Tom in Philadelphia

I just looked at the latest GFS (not ensemble runs) and it has no end to it up to ten days. From the 22nd to the end of the model run on the 26th is one huge area of below normal in the eastern 2/3 of the US. I'm not sure what the avg low right now in places like Foley, AL are, but it is showing 32F widespread in Baldwin County, AL where Bill is. Might be anomalies of around 20F which is pretty significant. This is on the 26th. 10 days out though you just look for trends as it will surely change. Sometimes it gets colder, sometimes warmer. The ensemble runs show it warmer so that is a good thing.

On the other hand the Euro shows a brief cold snap with a very warm period after that. If the Euro is right, the GFS will change and start showing it in a few days. If the Euro is wrong, it will then switch to show what the GFS has after a few days. The models usually catch up to each other after a couple days. It is rare when they are opposite of each other. The Euro as we all know by now is more accurate than the GFS, and has been for years.

I'll keep watching to see if it changes.

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