Exoten und Garten Forum               Hardy Palm and Subtropical Board

7,394,714 Messages displayed since 03/03/2007

Politics vs Science:

Message from Mike coastal CT

There is a lot of moving parts to how/if/when the global climate might (?) be changing. Much of it is over my head, I wish I knew more.

The obvious parts (in terms of basic climatology) is that is has been well known for more than 300 years that many things that impact global climate, all naturally occurring……..like solar variability (remember the Milankovitch theory?)….changes in earth-sun geometry (mathematically we KNOW the orbital characteristics change with time, the obliquity of the axis varies from 22.1 degrees to 24.5 degrees over about 41,000 years)….the eccentricity (departure from a circle) of the earth orbit varies over a period of about 50,000 years…etc… all slightly influence the amount and distribution of solar radiation that reaches the surface of this planet (and impacts climate over time). The advance and retreat of ice glaciers are a NORMAL process on the surface of this planet (despite what the media tells us!). In fact run away warming might trigger glaciers. Google the Ewing – Donn hypothesie for fun.

In the last 50 years or so (since 1960 when satellites went into space and we could see the plants climate 24/7)…we have seen some changes in the last 50 years that there is little argument about it: A overall and seasonal reduction (and slower winter build back) of Arctic sea ice…small rises of global sea levels…changes in the upper chemistry (when compared to ice cores) of the atmos…etc. Again, much of the upper air research stuff is over head. You saw the headline last week about the CO 2 pushing past 400ppm. The ice-core evidence shows that carbon dioxide waxed and waned with a number of ice ages, but the CURRENT values near 400 ppm are far greater than any peaks observed in at least the last 800,000 years. Is this a serious issue? Who really knows?

In any event, in my opinion (again just my opinion) I doubt that a cold winter in 2013, 1957, 1883, or 1432, or a string of warm/cold, rainy/drought, stormy/nonstormy...etc is "proof “ that things definitely moving one way or another. Global climate varies – always has, always will.

What I’m much more certain about (100% certain)…is that what has happened to the climate change debate (more like fight now), is that it has become political (like everything else). If you pick a side, it really is only supposedly showing your political idealogy. The sad part (truly) is of course the science suffers.

Exoten und Garten Forum               Hardy Palm and Subtropical Board