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Let's look at this...
Message from Sam TN
Year/Region 1+2 3 3.4 4
2015 +2.52 +2.66 +2.46 +1.12
2009 +0.17 +0.81 +0.94 +0.99
1997 +3.76 +3.25 +2.54 +0.66
1982 +2.12 +2.19 +1.95 +0.72
Now this table is for October, not November, so the numbers are higher now and we'll see what they are at the end of the month, but that's not important. Look at the distribution. It is my opinion that 1982 fits this year in distribution most, but it's really a blend of both 1982 and 1997. So I'm saying in the middle. That one also had a Modoki look (more so than this one).
This was that year. Obviously, NOT a cold winter, in fact, leaning slightly warm. Particularly up North. But this was then, and this is NOW. We are a warmer world now and this Nino is even stronger with 1+2 being even warmer as well (and still will increase a tad more).
I just don't share Bastardi's view on pending cold coming and this Nino being a major collapse. It's going to fall soon, but it's not quite done...yet. Soon. Even so, that's a lot of warm water out there to cool off over the winter first.
I think the thing we need to pay attention to is how warm the water is elsewhere compared to then and it's a LOT warmer. If we get a persistent -EPO/PNA, then there could be trouble, but I don't see that with this Nino. The signal is WAY too strong Tom.
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