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Bastardi Doubles Down on the El Nino has peaked
Message from Tom in Philadelphia
Bastardi is doubling down. Not sure but he is claiming the SOI is rising possibly to zero. Not good for a strong Nino.
Here is his latest:
That would confirm our suspicion that while the hysteria about enso3.4 continues, the entire system has peaked on a whole. The longest standing measure of the enso is the SOI after all and it gives us a look at what the affect of the el nino is. Right now there is no linkage, and because of that, warmer water is developing further west ( which one would suspect given it implies a greater easterly flow)
But it also has implications for the winter. For it will be easier to get a big fall against the 30 day base state, if that base state is lower.
If you want to talk about unprecedented enso events be my guest, but dont ignore the SOI
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