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Continued warmth expected

Message from Sam TN

As El Niņo driven temperatures soar well into December, it appears there's not much of a slowdown so far into what we the CFS v2 expects for January. This model has been very consistent about showing continued warmth in the East relative to averages. Meanwhile, the Euro expects a positive AO to continue.

By the way, El Niņo has peaked and will start to quickly drop in SST anomalies. It will take a while before the atmosphere reacts. I'm thinking several weeks to two months even. At that time we may see a pattern change, but it will be February by then. Or at least late January. Not to say that the polar vortex couldn't send down a cold shot before then, but anything that does come our way in the East will not last too long. This is not the year for extreme cold in the East as I've mentioned. However, models are suggesting the troposphere to start to send increased energy transfer to the stratosphere and this may weaken the polar vortex with a pulse, but my expectation is that it will take several pulses to disrupt it's flow and eventual breakdown.

Enjoy the warmth!

Forecast the next 45 days courtesy of the CFS v2.






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