Exoten und Garten Forum
Hardy Palm and Subtropical Board
7,325,121 Messages displayed since 03/03/2007
Good Post;Math/Bastardi has zero credibility
Message from Mike coastal CT
That was a good post…and sums up I how kind of think about things as well. I too fell to near 0 F both in Feb 2015 and in the winter 2014/2015, this sitting near ocean side with 43 F SST. Anything is possible in weather, but the law of averages eventually will catch up with things. Even if this were not an El Nino year, even if both Atlantic and Pacific SST were not above normal, it would be a very good bet the a 3rd record breaking winter would not occur again. My local NWS station (though 45 miles away) had its coldest Feb, it’s coldest winter month, and coldest sustained lows in 115 years. It’s really hard to find the rational that the same conditions will occur again this Dec/Jan/Feb.
It’s also very true that it will not be warm in the areas that typical have cold weather in winter – winter will be winter. It WILL snow heavy now and then in Chicago, Denver, Boston…etc…..there will be several nights of freezing temps in Myrtle Beach, Mobile, Dallas…etc….it might fall below 50 F on one or two nights in Miami or Palm Beach…etc but a record breaking cold winter seems really a long shot give the strong El Nino and the odds.
As far as the Bastardi issue….let’s at least be fair to the folks (like NOAA/NWS) who actually try to supply unbiased forecasts:
Joe Bastardi (which I’m sure is a great guy) is a “winter fanatic”. I knew of him 15 years ago or more. He has little respect among serious science folks. When he was at Accuweather he was a regular poster on “Arctic Ice update page”….the Snowstorm Cronicles”….the “New Ice Age blog”….etc. and dozes of other cold weather/snow interest sites. He is biased. It is also untrue, that Bastardi called both winters last year very close: He forecasted a cold December 2013 in the east (it was completely normal)…and he forecasted all of winter 2014/2015 to be severe (December was mild and so was most of Jan). He also called for a cold winter in 2012 (it was record mild). He calls for a cold winter EVERY year. Just the fact that in the face of this record El Nino (and a very warm November at nearly every NWS station east of the Rockies!)… he is calling for a very cold winter, I think shows where is bias is. Most serious folks in weather find him entertaining….but not credible.
One of the first things in the study of climate I learned when reading/researching/gathering information and data was - always consider the source.
Exoten und Garten Forum Hardy Palm and Subtropical Board