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Hardy Palm and Subtropical Board
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Think you are on to the bigger picture:
Message from Mike coastal CT
All these forecasts out there seem to muddy the water more than it has to be...so the average folks who just want to have some idea give up and think there really is no clue to what might happen.
I think just as you say, now that November is over (essentially)...and there seems to be no real massive player on the field to change the pattern...I think it's a good bet that December and January will be warmer than normal in much of the USA. As El Nino fades in Feb, maybe more "winter weather" can get a foothold, but I think just using basic mathematical odds there is a 1 in a million chance we will see Feb 2016 anything like Feb 2015.
As you say, winter will be winter, snow will fly in the Mt West, Midwest, Great Lakes, Upper Northeast,...there will be some cold nights in the 20's F in the middle south....a few nights will get well below freezing down on the subtropical coasts (Texas to South Carolina)....and maybe Florida and California will see a few cold nights (below 50 or 45 F).
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