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Overall USA Weather Forecast for Dec 1 – Dec 15th:

Message from Mike coastal CT

While there is always uncertainty in what the long term pattern (beyond 2 or 3 weeks) might do…I like to keep taps on the more realistic short term forecast and general weather pattern (which is much less prone to errors). So here is the model output and forecast for the first half of December 2015 :

With little change in the primarily progressive upper air pattern forecasted - above normal Temps are likely to continue thru at least mid-month (and probably thru most December) across much of the USA mainland. The exception to this forecast will be over portions of the inter-mountain West, where above normal Precip and below normal upper air heights will keep Temps a bit below normal (good for the Western Ski industry, however).


December 1 – 7:
Above normal Temps will dominate much of the nation from today through next Monday: With the exception of portions of the intermountain West and TX where below normal heights and snow/ice cover will keep Temps below normal for a few days. During this time, the northern Plains will see some +14 to + 16 anomalies near the Dakotas and northern border…while most locations in the far east and East Coast look to have +5 to +6 temp anomalies during this time. The upper Western States look to stay above average as well with + 4 to +10 anomalies:





Dec 8 – 14:
By the 8th or so, heights seem to be rising in the Intermountain West/Northern TX. So it appears a warming trend (relative to normal) by the 8th or 9th. There looks to again be some +12 warm anomalies near the US/Canada border. Some of the middle and upper East Coast and eastern lowlands look to be +6 to +9 above normal, as does several areas of the inner Southwest. Beyond 15 days out (not shown on forecast map) – the models are forecasting some translation of the primary TROF in the eastern Pacific/West Coast…to a more Southwest/Central US based TROF - which would imply colder Temps pushing more over the west-central US during the week before XMAS:



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