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Short term Weather forecast into early January:

Message from Mike coastal CT

The newest runs of the forecast is out now to January 3rd. As I have mentioned before, I think the short term forecasts (about 14 – 16 days out) often have a small margin of error compared to 30, 60, or 90 day forecasts. The cold shot that moved from the West to the east (this morning) will push off the East Coast by the weekend. This was the first cold shot the whole mainland (other than Florida of course) experienced.

The coming week looks wet and warm for much of the USA, in fact there are no negative anomalies forecast for the entire US mainland. There looks to be some big positive anomalies (+15 ) in the eastern Great Lakes and the upper Northeast (NY/MA northward). In terms of sensible weather…. Short waves being ejected eastward from the mean western TROF will spin-up a vigorous storm next week - so we should get a full blown storm crossing the whole of the mainland from CA to the Middle Atlantic this week, with most rain and mild temps (some snow maybe in the Great Lakes):

As we move pass Dec 25th, there is some sign the relentless Western TROF will move eastward to the interior West- this should triggering another large, complex major storm over the mainland that will move from the interior West, through the central states, and then through the Great Lakes/upper Northeast. It also looks like the very large positive temp departures will ease off slowly in the last days of the month and into early January…this the result of a more zonal flow. So we should expect more seasonal temps, with departures of -3 to +6 from West to East near and below 40 latitude from late December into early January. The far north (above 40 latitude) looks to still have some bigger positive temp anomalies ,…. with some +8 to +10 from Montana east to the upper Lakes and Northeast. Thanks to the strong Atlantic Subtropical Ridge over the Bahamas, much of the southernmost south Atlantic areas from Savannah south through Florida should continue warm and dry with some +9 temp departures forecasted:

Finally, in the longer term (out to late January)….the very cold and strong polar vortex looks to remain close to the North Pole, this likely will keep the very cold air over the polar region… and none of the models show a change for at least the next 3 weeks (out to January 19th). So if this forecast holds, we should see little below normal cold in most of the USA out to the 3 week of January.

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