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Hardy Palm and Subtropical Board
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Modoki is bad
Message from Tom in Philadelphia
We in the East certainly do not want Modoki. That means trough over the eastern US and the low further west in the Gulf of Alaska. This is why I don't think this winter is really going to be anything like 1997-98. It was a very different El Nino, which is exactly what Bastardi keeps harping on.
Also, there is no guarantee that this El Nino after December won't rapidly fade. I hope it doesn't, but it certainly could. Three bad winters in a row are bad, but we have had since 2010 four out of six winters colder than average or have a really cold month. The last time my city had three really bad winters in a row was 1976-77, 77-78, and 78-79. And Feb 79 was the worst of the bunch. I'm still a bit worried.
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